Too much to ask…

Too much to ask... NHS_Training_in_Primary_Care_General_Practice

Are we nudging our way out of the Corona-storm?  Towards calmer waters ahead?

Don’t sell yer sou’wester just yet!

An essential life-line; the development of tracing.  The conventional method, knocking on doors.  In this case, millions of them.  Who’s going to put on a mask and do that?

Or, ringing people up… hoping they can remember who they sat next to, this time last week, whilst they are spooked and in the midst of the mother of all symptoms… good luck with that.

The alternative, an App, but it seems to put us in the middle of a ludicrous stand-off  between Google, Apple, the NHS and someone… Dr Micheal Veale(?), who’s got his own version.

We can fix all this with some clear messaging and overcoming the reservations about the big-state, nicking your big-data with a small bit of legislation; a sunset-clause and the data curated by the Universities.

The CBI, Institute of Directors, the small-biz community, all pushing to get back to work and the trades unions wanting to make sure their members are safe.  Expect a row over diluting social distancing. 

Seductive, whispered, weasel words; ‘two meters is not a magic perimeter, it’s how long you are together that matters’… oh, really… that’s fine by me but stay your distance, all the same. 

Work in an office on the 17th floor?  You could wait, in a hundred meter queue, to be the only person in the lift and get to work at about half-past-three, or try the stairs… take ’till half-past-three to recover!

People who claim to speak for the +70yrs, want to demolish the age-ban.

Even I know; you grow older, your immune system doesn’t work as well.  I’d rather be isolated than ventilated.

There’s a race to find a vaccine.  Despite the altruistic overtones from big-pharma, one of them stands to make a shed-load from being first to market.  Getting them to work together is in everyone’s interest is about as likely as getting ferrets to do ballroom dancing.

Supply-chains… I think we’ve learned,  some links in the chain are not as strong as we thought.  

NHS Trusts, in most communities, are among the biggest employers and biggest spenders.  Channel that money into local procurement and you get an immediate injection of cash into the local economy and a nudge to help communities recover.

We must be able to make stuff here?  

Will it cost more?  I hear, a box of gloves that were about £1.50, are now six quid… plus all the on-cost of manic procurement and express delivery.  

You pay for what you get and getting it here, looks, in the long-run, less expensive than getting it here, just-in-time. 

Now, HMG has some serious road-to-normal decisions to make.  Their track record isn’t great.

Hesitant in responding to global warnings.  Late into lock down, too quick to abandon tracing, to slow to get testing.  Suspicions surrounding scientific advice, overshadowed by backdoor political influence.  Slow, off the mark to secure PPE, shilly-shallying about mask wearing, the debacle in the care homes.

In March, passenger numbers at Heathrow Airport, fell by 52%, to 3.1 million!  Nearly half a million from the Asia-Pacific; 875,000 from the European Union, 711,000 from North America.  There are no international standards for healthcare screening at airports. 

We don’t know how many people have recovered from the virus, can’t tell for sure who’s had it, but we know who died.

Britain has done 10.13 tests per 1,000 people, the lowest rate in western Europe. Italy’s rate, 32.73.  Ireland’s, 31 and Germany’s, 30.4.

How will BoJo’s gang decide what’s next?

Psychologist, Gerd Gigerenzer suggests an approach he calls ‘fast and frugal’… perhaps not.  

Amitai Etzioni proposes ‘humble decision making’, an assortment of tentativeness, delay, and hedging…. that might appeal! 

Erroneous framing of the problem, lack of awareness, indulgent optimism, decision fatigue, Brexit distraction and analysis paralysis.  It’s easy to make the wrong decisions.

Susan Cain, in her book Quiet, tells us, in a typical meeting, 3 people do 70% of the talking.  I doubt COBRA is any different. 

Boil it down, the big decision is; 

livelihoods versus people’s lives. 

No one is saying this is easy but this time, hoping for a timely, balanced, reasoned and cohesive decision isn’t too much to ask, is it?

News and Comment from Roy Lilley

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