Are you going shopping this weekend? Where? Food shopping? Really? Do you still push the wheels around Tesco?
They’ll deliver it to you for free. At a time to suit you! You knew that didn’t you!
You can still go to the deli for the toasted cumquat seeds to sprinkle on your lavender ice cream but you don’t have to lug the bog-rolls and cat food.
I wonder how many of you’ll buy something on-line?
Retailing is in a mess. How much of a mess? We are back to our new friend, disruptive innovation.
Shopping on-line is watching the death throes of Toys R Us, Maplin, New Look, Carpetright, Mothercare, Debenhams and Homebase. There’ll be more.
Look out for what property people call ‘quarter days’. Landlords divide the year into quarters. January to March, April to June, July to September and October to December. Rents are due at the end of each quarter.
I’ll bet that’s why House of Frazer have just announced going into a Company Voluntary Arrangement, they’ll have struggled with the rent for the January to March quarter.
Debenhams profits have fallen by 80%. See what happens in June.
I hate to mention it but since we last spoke on the subject, the other side of disruptive innovation… Babylon have been busy; 40,000 NHS patients applied to use the service, they’re predicting 100k.
Plus, 200 GPs recruited, on £90k a year, working from home. Who wouldn’t give it a go? Lookie-like offerings are springing up.
This is not sustainable.
Practices will go broke. Just as Debenham’s will close because Amazon is eating their lunch… Babylon are on the hors d’oeuvres.
The stores and GPs… victims of disruptive innovation and something called the tipping point. Malcom Gladwell wrote a book about it, based around Everette Roger’s theories, the Diffusion of Innovation, 1995.
There’s scholarly stuff around it but it boils down to five things.
- Knowledge – they find out about it
- Persuasion – they see people try it and find they like it
- Decision – they give it a go
- Implementation – they realise it’s better than what they are currently doing
- Confirmation – they do it again and tell others.
We hear about shopping on-line, other people we know, do it. We do it, have a good experience, do it again, tell our friends and create a bush-fire.
People struggling to see a GP need a bit of persuading to make a change. They see friends, workmates doing it, give it try, it works for them, they tell friends and family … bush fire.
We used to be influenced by system leaders. Now we are the system and social media makes us all leaders.
No matter how much you rubbish shopping on line, it’s killing retailing as we knew it.
No matter how much you rubbish The Babylonians, the concept will kill GP practices as we know them.
In the same way Netflix will kill the BBC’s creative content. Clarkson was just the start.
People will do what’s right for them. They will rat-run their cars, walk on the grass, go shopping at midnight, watch the 6 o’clock news at twenty past eight. A movie at three and see a doctor when it suits them. We are ill prepared.
What’s next? It is inconceivable that the public will continue to put up with the mess that social care is in, the relationship it has with health and getting ripped off by stinking care homes.
What will happen?
I’m not sure but 4sure it will be a version of Maplin folding and Babylon flourishing; the care home sector will collapse, social care will become user funded, personal budgets will dominate and the state will no longer be an actor in this drama?
Truly, I don’t know. Anything is possible.
Would you like to find out? I would…
That’s why, on 22nd May, the IHM is running an ‘on the way home’ conference with a difference.
They have lined up Norman Lamb MP, who will be joining us along with;
Sam Jones (formally NHSE new models of care) Micheal Adamson from the Red Cross (He said he thought the care sector was a humanitarian disaster), a speaker from the authoritative Social Care Institiute and others from local government and the sector…
… they will make TED style contributions, then workshop with managers and system leaders to produce a report, to be written by independent health journalist Richard Vize and submitted as a contribution to the government’s green-paper thinking on the future of social care.
There will be a tipping point in social care, if you’d like to be part of creating the fulcrum point… come and join us.
… we’ll even give you a glass of wine and if you bring a colleague with social care ID, they come free!
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Reproduced at TrainingPrimaryCare.com by kind permission of Roy Lilley.